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What Does the New Constitution Mean in African Countries?

6 May 2024
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When an incumbent leader in an African country claims that the constitution needs to be amended or that a brand new constitution needs to be drafted, this is not a good sign. He is probably nearing the end of his second term as president, but since he does not want to give up his seat, he wants to keep his seat for two more terms by resetting the mileage with the adoption of a new constitution. For 15 years I have been following Africa, and in many cases, constitutions that have been renewed on the basis of honorable principles such as democracy, separation of powers, human rights, social state, rule of law, etc., are in fact malicious attempts to prepare the legal ground for the president to serve for a few more terms.

Constitution amended before elections

This time, Togo, a former French colony in West Africa, swiftly passed constitutional amendments last April, replacing the country’s 65-year-old presidential system and adopting a political model based on a parliamentary system, on the eve of parliamentary elections that had been postponed until late December. On April 29, 10 days after these substantive changes, more than 4 million Togolese voters went to the polls to elect 113 members of parliament and regional assemblies. Under the new constitution, senators, who will be elected by the votes of the members of the regional assemblies, will form the second “chamber” of the new legislature.

Power in Togo has been in the Gnassingbé family since 1967

What do we see when we look at the political history of Togo, which has decided to adopt a parliamentary regime? It is certainly not a proud picture in terms of democracy. In Togo, which gained its independence in 1960, when the first 7 years are set aside, we see only two heads of state: Father Gnassingbé and Son Gnassingbé. In 1967, the father Gnassingbé seized power in a coup and ruled the country until his death. In 2005, the military handed Togo over to the son Gnassingbé. The term of office of 57-year-old Faure Gnassingbé, who has held the reins of his country for 19 years after winning back-to-back presidential elections, will end in 2025. In this respect, Togo is reminiscent of Gabon, where two father-and-son leaders have dominated the country’s destiny for more than half a century. Today, in 15 African countries, the current heads of state continue in office without a time limit. The son Gnassingbé probably made the constitutional changes I mentioned above in order to be included in the class of those who rule the country without a time limit.

Togo suddenly switched from a presidential to a parliamentary system

It is clear that the constitutional change in Togo did not emerge as a result of grassroots pressure, but was imposed from the top down. On paper, the transition from a presidential to a parliamentary system means a stronger legislative power, a more prominent role for parliament in the balance of powers, and a more symbolic role for the president. So shouldn’t the opposition, civil society organizations and voters in Togo be happy that the authoritarian Faure Gnassingbé regime has been replaced by a parliamentary democracy? This is not the case at all. The ruling party has been winning all elections in the country for decades, the opposition is under constant pressure, voters have no confidence in the polls, and it is widely believed that the elections are rigged. In these circumstances, no one outside the ruling circles bought Faure Gnassingbé’s hasty and fait accompli transformation of Togo into a parliamentary democracy, without addressing the opposition, without informing the electorate, ignoring civil society organizations. Son Gnassingbé cooked it himself and will eat it himself.

Opposition : We are against the constitutional coup

After boycotting the 2018 parliamentary elections, the opposition parties did not repeat the mistake this time and participated in the April 2024 elections. They opposed the constitutional amendments imposed before the elections, approved after only two debates in the plenary session of parliament, and tried to explain that they were facing a constitutional coup d’état, that the amendments were drafted and finalized in an unacceptable manner, and that they were imposed from the top down without public debate, but they were unable to make their voices heard. Opposition politicians abroad claimed that they had not even had the opportunity to read the constitutional amendments, let alone discuss them, and called on the people to take to the streets to express their reaction against the “dictatorial” Faure Gnassingbé regime.

Western journalists could not cover the elections

The elections were closed to foreign media and without the presence of Western observer delegations. ECOWAS, the West African regional organization of which Togo is a member, initially pretended to object to the hastily adopted constitutional amendments, but then had to back down, unable to speak out against the repression of the elections. Eventually, the book was closed when the African Union, the Organization of French-speaking States and ECOWAS announced that the elections had been a success. The organization responsible for the elections announced that the turnout was 60 percent, while opposition circles claim that 60 percent of the electorate did not go to the polls.

Son Gnassingbé in power until death

As far as I can see, the political situation in Togo is unlikely to turn against Gnassingbé any time soon. Faure Gnassingbé, who won 108 out of 113 parliamentary seats in the April 29 elections, will remain the sole ruler of his country for many years to come. After his term expires in 2025, he will leave the presidency and be appointed by the parliament, as the head of the party with the majority in the parliament, as “head of the council of ministers” (in western terms, prime minister), and with this new hat, he will rule his country until his death, with no time limit.

Criticized at home, admired abroad

On the other hand, we have witnessed in recent years that Faure Gnassingbé, whose authoritarian rule at home we have criticized, has been a successful mediator in solving the problems caused by the successive military coups in West Africa. We have seen that the region has benefited from the appeasement initiatives of the experienced politician, who has advocated for dialogue between the regional organization ECOWAS and the coup countries and opposed the military intervention of the organization in Niger, with the military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. We hope that the authoritarian leader’s successful foreign initiatives will now be followed by domestic ones in Togo, which has become a parliamentary democracy, in the interests of the poor people.

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IN THE MIDST OF SHALLOWNESS, ON THE CUSP OF A VORTEX

10 May 2021

PLAGUE OF MEDIOCRITY 

 

The worst form of mediocrity has widely infected the global society just like the pandemic caused by COVID 19 and its mutants. Whether this is a side product of ‘informational revolution’ is yet to be thoroughly analysed.

It is still at its creeping stage and likely to exact higher toll in different manifestations of governance. Populist politicians continue to reap the benefits of ever widening lower-than-mediocre segments of their societies, thus churning utopias for their grassroots, and creating dystopias for many not only in their countries but throughout the globe. The global village is now in shambles.

 

POPULISM NURTURED BY SHALLOWISM

 

‘Shallowism’ has become the trademark of domestic and international scenery. And worst of all the intelligentsia, academia, media, institutions etc. have, intentionally or undeliberately, become victims of it. Some even have chosen to fall in love with their executioners for their parochial individual interests. Pluralistic democracy is receding, fundamental rights of freedom are at stake, individual liberties are in jeopardy. That ambience lurking behind the scenes and penetrating polity and society has yielded varying regimes challenging democracy, thus promoting autocracy on a wide scale.

 

The world community  witnesses different leaders personified by such persons as Trump, Putin, Modi, Bolsonaro, Maduro to cite a few. One can add many other names to the list including those from Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Strong traces of deteriorating scenes are also seen in Turkey giving credence to the  surge in populism upping the ante for restoring democracy and challenging the Republican traditions writ at large.

 

WEB OF ENCIRCLING CRISES

 

A  glimpse of crises-ridden geographical directions around Turkey is worth reflecting upon, as follows:

 

To her East the incessant sectarian policies pursued by the mullah regime in Iran seeking to preserve its clout in the region and never waivering in challenging secular way of life, autocratic regimes governing  most of Central Asia looking astray towards pluralistic democracy, the strong  possibility of Afghanistan sliding into chaos in the wake of the withdrawal of NATO forces from the country, and farther away the plight of Uighurs in China adding further fuel to regional instability. With regard to Caucasia now that the Azerbaijan has reconstituted its sovereignty in Nagorno-Karabakh there might emerge a ray of hope to launch a new cooperative scheme to bring together all actors involved in the region, including Armenia, to start laying the groundwork for peace and stability by opening all lines of communications encompassing the whole region. To what extent Russia would be compliant with such a design is controversial given her attitude to preserve its clout under the guise of frozen conflicts in Caucasia and elsewhere.

 

To her West relations soured with Greece mainly owing to the revival of late of the Aegean issues and Greece’s unfounded ambitions relating to the East Mediterranean, not to mention the Cyprus issue. Turkey’s standing in the Balkans started to lose face in comparative terms because of her recent ideological stance rooted in political Islam. Relations with the EU deteriorated on mutually committed mistakes which culminated in alienation of Turkey from the EU. Bilateral relations with the US is at its lowest point as a result of primarily due to the purchase of Russian S 400 Missile defence batteries coupled with divergent interests between the two countries as regards regional challenges. Biden’s statement on 24 April 2021 on politically defining the tragic 1915 events as ‘genocide’ has been another serious blow to Turkey-US ties. Both countries will have to grapple with the implications of that unacceptable statement in the long term.

 

To her North despite noticeable rapprochement with Russia in recent years the existence of deep divergences of positions cannot be hidden in Syria and Libya. Turkey does not see eye-to-eye with Russia the protracted conflicts extending from Transnistria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, and still simmering problems, albeit with different manifestations, in Nagorno-Karabakh. Added to this list is the ever increasing militarisation of the Black Sea basin ensuing the Russian illegal and illegitimate occupation and annexation of Crimea and its support to separatists in the Donbas region of Ukraine. The recent flare-up between Russia and Ukraine further exacerbated the fragile situation in Turkey’s immediate neighbourhood to the North. A small misstep in that region could implicate Turkey in a serious imbroglio with long term effects.

 

To her South the Middle East is still scene of a boiling quagmire due to the unsettled conflict in Syria, regional challenges posed by Iran, the enduring Lebanese conundrum, the friction between Saudi Arabia/ the Gulf Emirates and Yemen, the precarious situation in Iraq, the remnants of ISIS lurking behind the scenes to  reconstitute its influence if and when an opportunity arises. Despite recent steps taken how to move forward relations with Egypt in a positive direction is still by and large a mystery.

 

Overarching this bleak picture is the unresolved Cyprus issue and the challenge poised by hydrocarbon reserves in the East Mediterranean. Normalisation of relations between Israel and some Arab countries is also an important phenomenon to be closely monitored by Turkey in its regional merits in the first instance.

 

There exists a global context now beset by strategic rivalry among the US, Russia and China which, if taken to a more conflicting stage, could create challenges for Turkey already in the midst of a maelstrom in her region suffering from her precious loneliness.

 

TUMULTOUS DAYS FOR TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY

 

The end product of rising populism in the Turkish case is crumbling institutions, the ongoing attempts to reverse the Republican values and ideals, distancing from democracies, suppression of basic rights and liberties, faltering economy, and a steady decrease in the morals and living standards of the society. By all standards the prevailing mediocrity pumped by those in power and supported by the followers of anachronistic entities and their entourage has been gnawing large chunks of the societal and economic norms and values to the detriment of the country and its standing vis-à-vis the world.

 

Shallow cadres unequipped with any intellectual depth and thoughts divorced from modernity and reality are taking the centerstage to demonstrate each passing day their inability in governance. They see foreign policy as a natural extension of domestic politics and attempt to blur the delicate line between those realms just like their contemporary counterparts in different geographies.

 

In aggregate terms they have carried both domestic politics and the Turkish foreign policy to the cusp of a vortex. Unfortunately there is considerable wreckage in the state ship, many parts of it filled with bilge water waiting to be drained and the damage to be repaired.

 

Owing to persistent transgression of boundaries between domestic and foreign policies Turkey now ‘enjoys’ the dividend of ‘splendid isolation’ in the midst of an arc of instabilities and conflicts surrounding her almost in a 360 degree.  It could certainly be argued that those current crises are not solely Turkey’s own making. Granted, but it is essential to probe into and analyse the implications of policies pursued by Turkey when faced by challenges caused by those ongoing crises. Soul searching is necessary and only free minds can achieve it.

 

WHAT TO DO?

 

The real question is what could possibly be done to surmount the challenges embedded in that big picture shaping the Turkish foreign policy. First and foremost it should be recognised by those in power that one cannot run foreign policy at loggerheads with the vital national interests of Turkey that have been consistently pursued after the foundation of the Turkish Republic. Humiliation of the foundational principles and values is a non-starter leading to a cul-de-sac, that is,isolation par excellence .

 

Making foreign policy the hostage of sectarian religious circles founded by exogenous forces, which never hesitate to affront the Turkish Republic, is the recipe for disaster. That is what Turkey is facing, and that is where the origins of the existing problems reside. And it is basically for this reason that Turkey is in dire need of secularising her foreign policy without delay. Turkey’s national interests and foreign policy cannot be left to the ‘mercy’ of non-contemporary bigotry prevailing over Turkey’s foreign policy choices. In that respect, recent developments have demonstrated that those wielding power have finally come to such a conclusion in the face of harsh realities governed by national interests of other countries.

 

Another important aspect to reckon is to revert to institutionalism in shaping and executing foreign policy. Attempts to run foreign policy on a personal basis is a relic of the past and should exit the scene. The traditional role and functions of institutions involved in foreign policy making should be revived without delay.

 

Overstretch of human and economic resources involving foreign policy at odds with an already fragile and vulnerable economy to polish the domestic situation is a powerful method to enter dark corridors going nowhere. Now is not the time to further militarise foreign policy. The first step should be to consolidate the ‘perceived gains’, if any, and take a calmer position giving priority to institutional diplomacy.

 

With the start of 2021 one can see some traces of realism in conducting Turkey’s foreign policy. Overtures have been made to the EU to put relations on a ‘positive agenda’. Despite some attempts most probably behind the scenes to ease tensions between Turkey and the US have not produced any concrete result. Those bilateral relations are teetering on the verge of further crises if the two sides continue to follow the same pattern. Seeking restoration of ties with the majority of Arab countries and Israel are on the menu, but it is too early to predict the outcome of those efforts. A patient and consistent policy is essential to attain forward looking results with the neighbours to the South without discrimination among any of them. The ‘Fortress Region’ must be robust before reviving healthy ties lying on the outer layers.

 

It is with certainty that global strategic rivalry will continue among the three major powers, notably, the US, Russia, and China in the long run. Their relations with ups and downs will dominate the scene in various walks of interstate relations with ramifications for Turkey. How Turkey will position herself regarding global and regional challenges and opportunities will be the key to chart her course in her foreign policy. Will it be of a transactional nature or of a well informed, predictable, and reliable one deriving its strength from its established norms, principles, and traditions remains the question.

After the Ninth China-Africa Summit

17 September 2024

Organizing an African summit is a matter of will, capacity and prestige, it is very demanding, and there are only a handful of countries that can afford it. The summits organized by Beijing are at the forefront in terms of content and spectacle. The 9th of these summits was held last week in the Chinese capital. 50 African countries, half of them heads of state and government, attended the grand event and held bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping. Started in 2000, the China-Africa summits have inspired many countries, including Turkey. In the aftermath of the last summit, as is customary, Western countries, in chorus, claimed that China was exploiting Africa and dragging it into debt.

China’s interest in Africa is permanent and the US’s is coincidental

China’s interest in Africa stems from its third-world principles in foreign policy. China believes that it is the leader of the global south and has set itself the goal of gaining the support of the entire continent of 54 countries. This political line does not change from one day to the next; leaders may change in Beijing, but their interest in the underdeveloped continent remains constant. The US interest in Africa depends on the leader and the ruling party; if there are Republicans in the White House, Africa is sidelined. Who doesn’t agree that if Trump wins the elections, Africa will fall off Washington’s radar? We have not forgotten that Trump did not visit Africa even once in his four years in office, and that he used abusive language against African leaders.

The West denigrates and belittles China’s activities in Africa

For China, Africa is both an economic and political playground. Beijing emphasizes at every opportunity that it attaches special importance to Africa. Every year, China’s foreign minister starts his overseas visits from Africa. In the years when its economy grew by 10 percent, its current account surplus and the Central Bank’s foreign exchange reserves were at record highs, Beijing, through Chinese contracting firms, carried out hundreds of gigantic infrastructure projects in Africa, both for its own benefit and for the benefit of the underprivileged sub-Saharan countries, which gained roads and railways, ports, oil pipelines, bridges, stadiums, convention centers and free/organized industrial zones. For some reason, these win-win investments are always underestimated or criticized in the western world.

China has trapped Africa in a debt trap: Both a lie and a falsehood

33 of the 46 least developed countries are African countries. In 20 countries of the continent, GNP is below 1000 dollars and in 11 countries below 2000 dollars. Since there is no capital accumulation in these countries, there is no option but to borrow for development. Why is it criticized that China, which has a current account surplus and dazzling foreign exchange reserves, offers huge contracting services to Africa with financing packages in exchange for raw materials? Answer: These criticisms are purely political and should not be taken into account. It is true that Africa is indebted to China, it is false that it is debt trapped by China. On the other hand, Chinese companies have come to the forefront not only in Africa but all over the world to get infrastructure projects and have become the most serious competitors of Turkish contracting companies.

Angola is indebted to both China and the West

Between 2012 and 2022, China will spend a total of $254 billion on infrastructure projects outside the country, 44 percent of which will go to Africa. According to Western criteria, 22 out of 54 countries on the continent are considered over-indebted. Angola ranks first in terms of debt to China, with $21 billion. The ranking continues with Ethiopia (7 billion), Kenya (7 billion), Zambia (6 billion), DRC (6 billion), Nigeria (5 billion) and other debtors. The total external debt of all African countries amounts to 700 billion dollars, of which 20 percent (135 billion) according to one source and 12 percent (84 billion) according to another is owed to China. Are these figures not proof that there is no China-made debt trap?

China will now produce solar panels and electric vehicles in Africa

China’s development rate has fallen to 5-6 percent due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the volume of debt/credit that China has directed to Africa in the last few years has also decreased significantly. Allocating 26 billion dollars to Africa in 2016, China was able to allocate only 1 billion dollars to the continent in 2022. When we look at the documents adopted at the 9th China-Africa summit held in Beijing last week, it is noticeable that China has changed its investment strategy towards Africa, the era of large infrastructure projects will come to an end, and green energy and high-tech product manufacturing will be prioritized from now on. According to the statement made by the Chinese leader, Beijing will allocate 50 billion dollars to Africa for the next 3 years, 30 billion of this amount will be in the form of loans/financing and 10 billion dollars will be realized through direct investment.

When Turkey builds roads in Africa, it is a source of pride; when China builds them, it is a joke

When we proudly talk about Turkey’s opening to Africa, which started 16 years ago, we emphasize that we are writing a success story by saying that “the trade volume is over 40 billion dollars and the value of the projects realized by our companies has exceeded 85 billion dollars”. When the Chinese state and its companies break records in trade, investment, credit/debt in the same lands, does this turn into a debt trap and exploitation? Let us not participate in and believe this smear campaign of the West. On the other hand, I believe that China’s new priorities in its Africa strategy will benefit Turkey. Chinese companies used to grab one out of every three major infrastructure projects in Africa. If the Chinese now focus on more advanced areas such as green energy, electric vehicles, telecommunication infrastructure, it means that we will be free from Chinese competition in major projects such as roads, ports and airports.

Sudan was able to export its oil thanks to China

Let me conclude by mentioning two gigantic projects carried out by China. In the years when the West, especially the US, was ganging up on Sudan, the Chinese laid a 1600 km pipeline to export oil from the oil fields, most of which are still within the borders of South Sudan, from the port of Port-Sudan via Khartoum. While no Western company was interested in this risky project at a time when hostility to dictator Omar al-Bashir was at its peak, China stood by Sudan and took the lead. Indeed, after the country split in two (2011) thanks to Western efforts, the pipelines could not be used regularly. Since April 2023, oil shipments through Sudan, which has been the scene of a war of armies since then, have reached a deadlock. In short, China has suffered serious losses from its investment in Sudanese oil pipelines.

Niger was able to export its oil thanks to China

The 1950 km oil pipeline to export Niger oil through Benin was built by China in 4 years (2019-2023). The agreement was that the cost would be paid in exchange for oil. When a coup took place in Niger before the project was completed, construction did not stop, work continued despite the military rule; at the end of 2023, the first tanker was ceremoniously launched from the port of Benin to transport Niger oil to China. In the spring of 2024, a senseless dispute arose between Niger and Benin, and Niger stopped oil shipments. It seems that China will also suffer serious losses from this huge investment. There are currently discussions about adding this network to the Chad-Cameroon pipeline by building a new 600 km long line. Had this project been carried out by a Western company, the construction would probably have been halted by the coup and could not have been completed. In short, let us criticize China for Africa, but let us also appreciate the great risks it is taking.

What should Europe do in the face of the migration problem?

Let me conclude this article by looking at the African continent and what China is doing here through a European lens. Leaving aside the Ukraine crisis, what concerns Europe the most is the irregular migration from Africa. This migration is likely to continue throughout the 21st century, as Africa’s population continues to grow contrary to the global trend (7 children per family in Niger). On the other hand, illegal migration is shaking Europe’s political balance, pushing voters further to the right of the spectrum, paving the way for populist leaders and weakening democracies. It has become imperative for European leaders to address the continent’s development challenge in depth in order to stop migration flows once and for all, not through palliative measures. Let us keep in mind that if Africa develops, illegal migration will end.

The US sees China’s activities in Africa in terms of world leadership and competition and naturally denigrates them. It would be a strategic mistake for Europe to view China’s activities through the US lens. What Europe should do is to act in cooperation with China, which is building roads, bridges and ports by lending and borrowing for the development of the continent. If they take Turkey with them in this direction, the growth and development graphs of the underdeveloped continent will rise rapidly. Europeans should not forget: African youth, who have lost hope, are not looking to China or the United States for salvation, but to the Mediterranean Sea in the direction of Europe.

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