CYPRUS: NEW HOPE; NEW DREAM

When an incumbent leader in an African country claims that the constitution needs to be amended or that a brand new constitution needs to be drafted, this is not a good sign. He is probably nearing the end of his second term as president, but since he does not want to give up his seat, he wants to keep his seat for two more terms by resetting the mileage with the adoption of a new constitution. For 15 years I have been following Africa, and in many cases, constitutions that have been renewed on the basis of honorable principles such as democracy, separation of powers, human rights, social state, rule of law, etc., are in fact malicious attempts to prepare the legal ground for the president to serve for a few more terms.

Constitution amended before elections

This time, Togo, a former French colony in West Africa, swiftly passed constitutional amendments last April, replacing the country’s 65-year-old presidential system and adopting a political model based on a parliamentary system, on the eve of parliamentary elections that had been postponed until late December. On April 29, 10 days after these substantive changes, more than 4 million Togolese voters went to the polls to elect 113 members of parliament and regional assemblies. Under the new constitution, senators, who will be elected by the votes of the members of the regional assemblies, will form the second “chamber” of the new legislature.

Power in Togo has been in the Gnassingbé family since 1967

What do we see when we look at the political history of Togo, which has decided to adopt a parliamentary regime? It is certainly not a proud picture in terms of democracy. In Togo, which gained its independence in 1960, when the first 7 years are set aside, we see only two heads of state: Father Gnassingbé and Son Gnassingbé. In 1967, the father Gnassingbé seized power in a coup and ruled the country until his death. In 2005, the military handed Togo over to the son Gnassingbé. The term of office of 57-year-old Faure Gnassingbé, who has held the reins of his country for 19 years after winning back-to-back presidential elections, will end in 2025. In this respect, Togo is reminiscent of Gabon, where two father-and-son leaders have dominated the country’s destiny for more than half a century. Today, in 15 African countries, the current heads of state continue in office without a time limit. The son Gnassingbé probably made the constitutional changes I mentioned above in order to be included in the class of those who rule the country without a time limit.

Togo suddenly switched from a presidential to a parliamentary system

It is clear that the constitutional change in Togo did not emerge as a result of grassroots pressure, but was imposed from the top down. On paper, the transition from a presidential to a parliamentary system means a stronger legislative power, a more prominent role for parliament in the balance of powers, and a more symbolic role for the president. So shouldn’t the opposition, civil society organizations and voters in Togo be happy that the authoritarian Faure Gnassingbé regime has been replaced by a parliamentary democracy? This is not the case at all. The ruling party has been winning all elections in the country for decades, the opposition is under constant pressure, voters have no confidence in the polls, and it is widely believed that the elections are rigged. In these circumstances, no one outside the ruling circles bought Faure Gnassingbé’s hasty and fait accompli transformation of Togo into a parliamentary democracy, without addressing the opposition, without informing the electorate, ignoring civil society organizations. Son Gnassingbé cooked it himself and will eat it himself.

Opposition : We are against the constitutional coup

After boycotting the 2018 parliamentary elections, the opposition parties did not repeat the mistake this time and participated in the April 2024 elections. They opposed the constitutional amendments imposed before the elections, approved after only two debates in the plenary session of parliament, and tried to explain that they were facing a constitutional coup d’état, that the amendments were drafted and finalized in an unacceptable manner, and that they were imposed from the top down without public debate, but they were unable to make their voices heard. Opposition politicians abroad claimed that they had not even had the opportunity to read the constitutional amendments, let alone discuss them, and called on the people to take to the streets to express their reaction against the “dictatorial” Faure Gnassingbé regime.

Western journalists could not cover the elections

The elections were closed to foreign media and without the presence of Western observer delegations. ECOWAS, the West African regional organization of which Togo is a member, initially pretended to object to the hastily adopted constitutional amendments, but then had to back down, unable to speak out against the repression of the elections. Eventually, the book was closed when the African Union, the Organization of French-speaking States and ECOWAS announced that the elections had been a success. The organization responsible for the elections announced that the turnout was 60 percent, while opposition circles claim that 60 percent of the electorate did not go to the polls.

Son Gnassingbé in power until death

As far as I can see, the political situation in Togo is unlikely to turn against Gnassingbé any time soon. Faure Gnassingbé, who won 108 out of 113 parliamentary seats in the April 29 elections, will remain the sole ruler of his country for many years to come. After his term expires in 2025, he will leave the presidency and be appointed by the parliament, as the head of the party with the majority in the parliament, as “head of the council of ministers” (in western terms, prime minister), and with this new hat, he will rule his country until his death, with no time limit.

Criticized at home, admired abroad

On the other hand, we have witnessed in recent years that Faure Gnassingbé, whose authoritarian rule at home we have criticized, has been a successful mediator in solving the problems caused by the successive military coups in West Africa. We have seen that the region has benefited from the appeasement initiatives of the experienced politician, who has advocated for dialogue between the regional organization ECOWAS and the coup countries and opposed the military intervention of the organization in Niger, with the military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. We hope that the authoritarian leader’s successful foreign initiatives will now be followed by domestic ones in Togo, which has become a parliamentary democracy, in the interests of the poor people.

On February 6, 2023, two seperate equally destructive earthquakes struck Turkey leaving  behind them an unprecedented loss of life and property. Eleven provinces were devastated. With every stone lifted, the ugly face of bad governance showed itself more clearly and exposed the level of incompetence that our institutions are suffering due to politicized appointments.

The earthquake made it painfully obvious that one cannot build and sustain a country on hollow political rhetoric and empty promises. It revealed that ambition needs to be matched with capabilities to achieve its potential. It revealed the importance of institutions and merit-based appointment, of common sense and the reliance on science. It also showed the people of Turkey what happens when a Government consistently undermines the state of law and abuses society’s sense of morality to serve its own political purposes. While deceptive rhetoric can help a Government hide great many things, the scale of this particular catastrophe rendered such attempts futile. Finally, it has exposed and hopefully will ensure the accountibility of those responsible for inadequate construction and the corruption that allowed it.

Faith as an excuse.

Dozens of flawed decisions and mistakes have helped two unprecented earthquakes to increase the damage they inflicted. While it is easy to identify these mistakes, that effort alone will not change anything. Unless we learn from what happened, and unless those responsible are held to account, and if we continue to cover up our mistakes with irrational justifications such as “faith”, we will relive this nightmare more often that we can bear. Sadly, the general attitude of the Government and the statements that they chose to make promise very little change and even less accountability.

The government’s unrealistic domestic and foreign policies are now buried under the rubble of the earthquake. For years, the Government weaponized political polarization at home marginalizing its critics and tried to do the same abroad.

Foreign Powers as the preferred bogeyman.

Mr. Erdoğan’s AK Party has consistently reinforced the perception of an external enemy with little care for the fact that Turkey’s long-term interests are not served by alienating decades-old allies. For years, they made sure that the flawed idea of “foreign powers” meddling in Turkish affairs occupies an unhealthy place in the minds of the Turkish public with a constant bombardement of hate incitement.

This erroneous policy led to a deep sense of mistrust towards Turkey and has strained relations with many countries, especially traditional friends and allies. However, this perception was as badly constructed as the flawed buildings that came down during the earthquakes and disappeared below the rubble of the buildings. Instead of the “evil foreigner”, the public witnessed dozens of foreign Urban Search And Rescue (USAR) teams who rushed to the aid of earthquake victims. These “evil foreigners” dropped everything that they were doing and risked their lives to saved hundreds of Turkish lives.

Experienced “foreigners” armed with kind hearts and state-of-the-art equipment skillfully manouvred the dangers of destroyed buildings and torn up roads to assist Turkey. Their “foreign” governments did not only send these heroes to help; they also send food, money, clothing, medicine and other desperately needed supplies. These “evil foreigners” didn’t stop there. Their civilian compatriots at home started aid campaigns that helped dispatch even more resources; the Dutch alone raised well over a $100 million dolars. USAR teams from Israel and Greece—countries with whom we have very tense relations—were among the first to arrive. Others from Armenia and the United States followed soon. They all worked with great devotion winning the hearts and minds of the Turkish people.

Earthquake diplomacy versus reality

“Evil foreign powers” have been the points of lights in an otherwise very dark nightmare and revealed to us, to the Turkish people, that we have been lied to. Together with the buildings constructed by corrupt criminals with political ties, the preposterous conspiracy theories being pushed by pro-Government media collapsed completely. In short, for the government and its cronies, “the jig is up!”

Unsurprisingly, prominent members of the Government didn’t hesitate to have their pictures taken with these foreign saviors they used to call “dark foreign powers” while kicking their feet at their own citizens who criticized them for their incompetence that has cost so many lives.

In the near future, we should expect the Government will engage in “earthquake diplomacy” to take advantage of this window of opportunity derived from the millions of lives that were destroyed by this unprecedented natural disaster. They might even take some steps to ease the strained relations with such countries as Armenia, Greece and Syria. But these steps will not yield lasting results because previous policies have completely undermined the mutual fides needed to sustain better relations. And sadly, this author is convinced that the government, and its leader, have not yet begun to grasp the extent of the distrust they have caused among international counterparts.

Moreover, in the current climate of global instability, it is highly unlikely that foreign attention will remain focused on the earthquake disaster in Turkey for long. Soon we will see attention shift to other pressing matters such as the Ukrainian crisis.

The world will move on and the Turkish people will be left to mourn its losses and face the dire consequences of an incompetent populist government.

A political earthquake

When the dust starts to settle, we are likely to witness another major earthquake. This will be a political equivalent that will finally enable Turkey a chance to build back better. To build back not just buildings but also good governance and the rule of law.