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Venezuela Elections : The test of Nicolas Maduro and the Chavez ideology with the electorate: 28 July 2024

12 July 2024
PAYLAŞ

I have been following Venezuela since my transfer to Cuba (2012). At that time, Venezuela was a very prestigious country in Latin America, with very bright economic indicators, exporting its oil without any problems, challenging the US, and providing serious support to Caribbean countries, especially Cuba, through the “Petro Caribe” programme. In 2013, with the death of Hugo Chavez, this bright page was closed. The decline in oil and raw material prices, the internal political tensions that started with Nicolas Maduro’s narrow victory in the controversial 2013 elections, the increasing pressure on opposition leaders, strained relations with the US, unfinished social investments, increasing corruption, world record inflation, all brought the end of Venezuela’s success story. During the 12-year term of Nicolas Maduro, the collapse of Hugo Chavez’s ideology was put on stage. The Venezuelan people, who were introduced to prosperity in the 1999-2013 period, have experienced the deepest economic crisis in their history in recent years, with 7.5 million people fleeing the country of 30 million people due to widespread misery.

Maduro opponents united against all obstacles for elections

The Maduro regime suffered serious legitimacy problems as a result of the 2018 elections, which were boycotted by the opposition due to bans, arrests and repression. The United States and around 50 other countries have now crossed Maduro out and recognised Juan Guaido, the head of parliament, as the country’s legitimate president. This extreme pressure on Venezuela under Trump’s leadership did not bring the expected political results. The Juan Guaido bubble deflated within a year or two, but the country was brought to its knees economically, unable to breathe. The mutually damaging stalemate was ended with the mediation of Mexico and Norway. In October 2023, an agreement was reached in Barbados (an island state in the Caribbean) between the Maduro administration and the opposition. US sanctions were eased in exchange for fair and free elections. This time the Venezuelan opposition united around a single candidate, reversing the boycott of the 2018 elections. Maria Corina Machado, an ardent oppositionist, was nominated as a joint candidate. The fact that the Supreme Court, under Maduro’s command, did not approve Machado’s candidacy, in violation of the Barbados Consensus, could not break the unity and resistance of the opposition, and this time they rallied behind retired diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, whom Machado pointed out. Currently, Maria Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez are successfully campaigning side by side and hand in hand.

The opposition’s electoral victory will not bring absolute power

Although opinion polls point to Maduro losing the elections, it would be appropriate not to give too much credence to these predictions. On the other hand, there are some circles who are sceptical that Maduro, who has the army behind him, may not hand over power quietly. It is possible to come across some shenanigans regarding the election results. On the other hand, the opposition’s victory in the presidential elections does not mean that all the “Chavezian” public institutions and organisations that have held power for 25 years will fall under the control of the opposition in a few weeks; the victory in the presidential elections of 28 July will only be the first step towards a radical change. The purge of the judiciary and the armed forces of “Chavezian” cadres will certainly take time. Let us bear in mind that parliamentary elections will be organised next year, followed by provincial elections the following year. We can say that if the parliamentary majority and state governments are won, the Opposition will dominate the country and become powerful.

It is imperative that the Chavezists and the opposition continue their dialogue on common ground.

Relations between the government and the opposition in Venezuela have been tense beyond normal for decades. The Chávezists regard the opposition as traitors and US lackeys. The opposition, which adopts neoliberal economics and sympathises with the US, considers the leftist governments and their supporters as inferior, primitive and outdated, and considers them insulting by labelling them communists. Naturally, such extreme polarisation constitutes a serious obstacle to peace and tranquility in the country. It has become a necessity for both sides to accept each other and learn to live together in peace. In this context, the most rational option would be for the opposition to maintain dialogue with the existing Chávezist cadres and cooperate with them to overcome the problems in the event of a victory in the July 28 elections. The masses of distraught people expect from the new government, first and foremost, running water, an end to power cuts, hospitals to provide services, salaries to increase and poverty to disappear.

Hugo Chavez passes and Maduro fails

An unbiased evaluation of the Venezuelan experience of the political understanding developed by Hugo Chávez, known as “Chavismo”, shows that the first period yielded positive results, with lower and middle income people rising to the upper class.In this period, Chavez also achieved successful results in foreign relations, strengthening regional co-operation by providing various supports to Caribbean countries (especially Cuba) in difficult situations.In sum, Chávez gained credibility with the public by prioritising the needs of the poor masses in the allocation of oil revenues.Under Maduro, who took the helm after the leftist populist leader, “Chavismo” collapsed.The situation of the prioritised poor masses has worsened and people have fled their country. Maduro also failed the test of democracy, trying to intimidate the opposition with repression and driving the people away from the polls. Maduro, who also scored badly in terms of foreign relations, was virtually isolated in his region and waited for patronage from Iran, Russia and China.If asked what Maduro has achieved, I can say that he succeeded in keeping the army on his side.I could not see any other success.

If the oil sector is revived and exports increase, the economic crisis will end; what about the social crisis?

The key to getting out of the deep political and economic crisis Venezuela has fallen into is to return to the days when the country extracted 3 million barrels of oil a day and exported it without any problems.In recent years, production has fallen below one million barrels.Spending oil revenues for the welfare of the masses of people, free from corruption, would bring social peace to a country suffering from income inequality.Venezuela has collapsed mainly due to its own mistakes, and the US sanctions against the country have accelerated the collapse.If Maduro wins the elections on 28 July, it will be almost impossible to revive the crisis-ridden oil sector, increase exports, end corruption, promote social peace and restore democracy.Considering that the US is the leading natural buyer of Venezuelan oil in the region, if the united opposition wins the elections, it will be recognised that the country is highly likely to emerge from the crisis with the end of US sanctions.If Edmundo Gonzalez and his team prioritise the poor masses in the distribution of oil revenues, the problem of political polarisation will disappear and Venezuela will regain its position as the most prosperous country in the region.

 

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Turning Over a New Leaf in Relations with Israel

4 March 2022

There is a saying attributed to Vladimir Ilich Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. This could not be more applicable to recent developments in global politics. Turkey’s recent rapprochement to Israel is a good example that fits this description.

 

The Government of Turkey seems to have realized that some of its erratic policies will come back to haunt them. Recent foreign policy initiatives indicate that Turkey is on a charm offensive to soften the blowback it expects from its past mistakes. In this spirit, the government seems to have abandoned earlier rhetoric that resonated well with its domestic political base but had little international policy value. As a result we are witnessing intense efforts to repair the bilateral relationship with regional adversaries. The recent visit to Turkey by the leader of the United Arab Emirates is meant to symbolize the fresh start Turkey is ambitious to achieve with others as well.

 

These efforts are awarded with a brand new foreign policy slogan. After the “Zero Problem” doctrine which ended up resembling “Zero Solutions”, the government now likes to refer to its foreign policy objectives as the “Problem-free Circle” representing its desire to create a circle of allies with regional countries.

 

Having finally realized that a foreign policy based on angry statements and unilateral actions achieves very little, Turkey’s government has dramatically changed its approach to Israel as well. This is perhaps the most concrete manifestation of the Government’s change in attitude.

 

These efforts have found a receptive audience in Tel Aviv as well as Israel also realized that it is better off enjoying good relations with Turkey. One cannot help but ask whether it was really necessary to force relations with Israel, a very important regional country, to a boiling point to begin with? Sadly the political leaders on both sides acted impulsively and did not calculate the potential cost of their negligent policies. And instead of assuming responsibility for certain mistakes and trying to find common ground based on mutual interest, both sides tried to leverage this bickering politically. Turkey supported Hamas to spite Israel and Israel felt entitled to murder 11 Turkish civilians during the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident. Such mistakes inevitably escalated the tension between the two countries.

 

How did it all start?

 

The beginning of the events that strained relations goes back to “Operation Cast Lead”. Israel initiated this military operation in December 2008 to quell Palestinian paramilitary groups in Gaza, but the military methods it used were heavily criticized internationally and became known in the Muslim world as the “Gaza Massacre”. Unfortunately, this operation was started only days after a meeting between the then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and then Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan where Mr. Erdoğan advocated for a peaceful solution. Erdogan felt betrayed by Olmert who seemed to have left his table only to order a military operation that killed hundreds of Palestinians leaving Erdoğan in a difficult spot politically.

 

Shortly thereafter, in the first weeks of 2009, during a plenary session of the Davos Conference, Erdoğan ended up raising his voice to the late President of Israel, Shimon Peres, which became known as the “One-Minute” incident.

 

And finally, the Mavi Marmara Flotilla incident occurred in the spring of 2010 where 11 Turkish citizens were killed in international waters by Israeli special forces.

 

And beyond that point, it seemed impossible to get the relationship back on track again. Erdoğan perceived Olmert’s behavior as a personal slight to his person and hardened his approach to Israel, never forgiving Olmert for his failure to keep his promise to find a peaceful solution.

 

Turkey shifted gears and started putting its weight behind Palestinian authorities. In short, both sides took the relationship for granted, and created an environment that was detrimental for regional peace and stability.

 

While I sincerely hope Turkey’s efforts to rebuild the relationship will succeed, it is important to realize Israel has less to lose if these attempts fail. If we analyze recent attempts to build a circle of allies from the perspective of Turkish Israeli relations, it would be unrealistic to quickly expect a full normalization. We need to realize that we need this normalization more than that Israel does. Israel is doing much better economically and from a geostrategic angle has less need for Turkey than before. While Turkey used to be Israel’s only Muslim-majority ally in the region, the Abraham Accords have remedied this situation and Israel now enjoys other allies in the Sunni world rendering Turkey less valuable.

 

It is therefore important to manage expectations for the aftermath of the expected visit by Yitzak Herzog, the President of Israel. Following the visit, it will be necessary to execute a series of confidence-building measures to regain the trust of Israel’s political authorities as well as the Israeli public opinion.

 

While challenges remain, there are also good reasons to be optimistic. Perhaps most importantly, the simple fact that the economic relationship continued to prosper even during the years that the political relationship was frozen. The refusal of economic relations to be subservient to political relations should be seen as a major source of hope and Erdoğan’s statement that Turkey could carry Israeli gas to Europe could not be better timed even though it might prove difficult to finance such a pipeline. Similarly, the number of Israeli tourists visiting Turkey has substantially increased in recent years and the cultural angle of the relationship including sports events are also reasons to be optimistic.

 

Israel, Iran, Azerbaijan

 

Another reason that the bilateral relationship is proving more resilient than many analysts assumed until recently, it is the ability of Israeli decision-makers to think strategically. Israeli policy-makers are uniquely qualified in recognizing that Israel will also benefit, on the long-term, from better and stronger relations with Turkey. Both countries have a common interest in containing Iranian influence in the region especially with the latter taking an increasingly more aggressive approach in trying to wield power in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Iranian efforts to increase its influence in Gulf countries such as the UAE as well as attempts to undermine stability in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, will further add to the importance of stronger Turkish Israeli relations.

 

Benefits of rapprochment in the West and the Hamas factor

 

I am also convinced that Israel is well aware of the fact that Turkey could assume a significant role in ensuring that the deep differences of opinion between Israel and Hamas do not lead to more violent conflicts between the two sides. In fact, everyone knows that Turkey was able to play such a role succesfully in the past. Therefore, if Turkey once again adopts a constructive attitude on this matter, it would have a very concrete and positive effect on rebuilding the relationship to its past glory. It is therefore no surprise that Turkey has made substantial efforts to distance itself from the Muslim Brotherhood as well as from armed factions of Hamas. Turkish policy makers should realize however that their Israeli counterparts will be monitoring closely whether such efforts enjoy real continuity.

 

It is also beyond any doubt that Western allies of both countries, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, will actively welcome more cooperation between Turkey and Israel. In fact, any measure of improvement in our relations with Israel, will inherently have a positive impact on our relations with these countries. This, in turn, will resonate positively on Turkey’s defense industry ambitions as well as other policy areas.

 

Israel also has a lot to gain

 

Israel should take care to rebuild relations with Turkey on a “win-win” basis to ensure its continuity and its leaders should look past transitional disagreements and remember longstanding amicable relations between the Turkish and the Jewish peoples. While few people in the West will recall, Turkey was the first majority-Muslim country to recognize Israel when it gained independence; a fact that will never be forgotten by the Israeli people.

 

In short, by adopting a pragmatic approach, Turkey managed to break the ice with the UAE. And it is now working to rebuild relations with Israel while considering options to reconcile with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Today’s political authorities are now realizing that rebuilding trust is much more difficult than destroying it.

 

Time for allies to be allies

 

While I am not entirely convinced that recent attempts to regain the trust that was lost in the last 15 years, are the result of deep introspection and a serious analysis of past mistakes, I remain hopeful that a convergence of interest between the two countries as well as the realization that enough challenges exist for both parties without constant bickering with old allies, will be enough to give these efforts continuity. It is past time to let bygones be bygones and look ahead while focusing on what unites us rather than fighting about our disagreements.

Democracy and regional co-operation in West Africa are losing ground

12 March 2024

In Africa, regional organisations undertake important tasks in the economic field. They lead developments such as the removal of barriers to trade between member countries, financial cooperation, free movement of capital and labour. Democratic principles such as the protection of constitutional orders and free elections are also among the priorities of regional organisations. In the event of a coup d’état or an armed attack, there are also experiences of members of the organisation mobilising troops, establishing legitimacy or repelling the attack. The 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), headquartered in Nigeria’s capital Abuja, has been unable to solve the problems it has been facing for the last 2-3 years and has been losing credibility. In addition to this situation, the political turmoil that started with the postponement of the elections that were supposed to be held on 25 February in Senegal, which is considered to be the model country of democracy in West Africa, proves that West Africa, which has been shaken by coups, has stumbled in the race for democracy.

Postponement of elections in Senegal leads to crisis

Let’s start with Senegal: Senegal stands out as the only country in this part of Africa, which has been subjected to the most military coups, where the army has not seized power. It is repeated on every occasion that this country is the most advanced democracy in the region. At a time when the number of coup d’état regimes is increasing and ECOWAS is finding it very difficult to cope with juntas, the stumbling of Senegal’s democracy has been a truly unfortunate development.

President Macky Sall, who successfully governed the country for two terms, announced that he would not run for another term, and while the elections were expected to be held on 25 February, the veteran leader postponed the elections to December in early February, a few days before the start of the 3-week campaign period, in line with a controversial decision taken in the parliament, which stirred the country and led to widespread protests. Macky Sall argued that if the elections were held in the current environment, political chaos would prevail in the country and that the elections to be held in a peaceful environment after the elimination of the social and political tensions would eliminate the danger of political instability. For this purpose, he held “National Dialogue” meetings, enacted a political amnesty law and postponed the election date to 2 June in order to reduce the reactions against the 10-month postponement decision.

The Constitutional Council showed Macky Sall a red card

The government’s “peaceful election initiative” did not find favour with the public and the opposition, and the Constitutional Council overturned the Parliament’s postponement decision on the grounds that both the postponement and the current president’s remaining in office after 2 April were unconstitutional. Finally, the “election date puzzle” was solved after 6 weeks of confusion, the executive and the supreme judiciary reached an agreement on 24 March and the 2-week “fast campaign” period started.

The political crisis has worn out politics and damaged the country

I still do not fully understand what lies behind Macky Sall’s dubious attempt to postpone the elections: This exercise would not have been necessary if the candidate of the ruling coalition, Prime Minister Amadou Ba, had a strong chance of winning the elections. One wonders whether the rejection of the candidature of Karim Vad, the candidate of the Senegalese Party for Democracy (PDS), the son of former president Abdelou Vad, who has recently mended fences with Macky Sall and has been pardoned, on the grounds of his French nationality, could have been the reason. On the other hand, could it be that the corrupt political elites feared that Basiru Diomay Faye, the candidate of the party of Osman Sonko (PASTEC), a popular opposition convict who opposes the established order in Senegal, could win the elections? In any case, Karim Vad will not be able to participate in the elections as the Constitutional Council has not approved the modification of the previous final list of candidates, which consisted of 19 candidates. If Basiru Diomey Faye, who is expected to be released thanks to the recent amnesty law, is able to lead his party’s electoral campaign, Macky Sall’s pointless postponement exercise will have played into the hands of the feared political party PASTEC. As the 24 March elections are likely to be a surprise, let us emphasise our hope that the elections will not lead to chaos and instability. It is not difficult to guess that the negative effects of shaking the 60-year strong democratic tradition, of which the Senegalese electorate is proud, due to the controversial 2024 March elections will not remain within the borders of this country. No one should be in any doubt about the serious damage it will cause to the region.

Regional organisation ECOWAS’ reputation in decline

ECOWAS, the prestigious regional organisation of West Africa, has been losing power and blood for the last 2-3 years. While this organisation was talking about bright projects such as the transition to a common currency (ECHO) in the region, the declaration of withdrawal from the organisation by three coupist countries in late 2023 meant that alarm bells were ringing for ECOWAS. Since 2020, as a result of the coups first in Mali, then in Guinea (Conakry) and Burkina Faso, and finally in Niger in the summer of 2023, the organisation suspended the membership of the coup countries, imposed economic sanctions against them and even threatened military intervention. In the face of these pressures, the three coup countries gained public support by claiming that the regional organisation had resorted to pressure and threats under the influence of France and the West and that ECOWAS was to blame for the economic difficulties they were facing, and then announced their departure from the regional organisation by forming a security alliance (Alliance des états du Sahel) in September 2023. The ECOWAS administration is still pretending that it has not heard of the decision of the three putschist governments to leave the organisation and is trying to reverse the decisions through secret diplomacy. The lifting of sanctions on Niger in recent weeks is a new step in this direction. In other words, conditions have changed in favour of the coup plotters, who have gained popular support over time, and it has become imperative to adopt compromising policies in order to bring the three countries back into the organisation, which did not even comply with the election timetable they had committed to. In Senegal, which was in favour of a tough stance against the putschists, it is clear that the political crisis that emerged with the postponement of the elections also helped developments in this direction.

Colonel Asimi Goita twisted the ankle of ECOWAS

The main actor in the arm-wrestling with ECOWAS is Mali’s putschist leader, Asimi Goita. Since 2012, Mali has been subjected to jihadist and separatist (Tuareg) attacks, and the soldiers who took over in 2020 blamed the French troops (Barkhane), the United Nations Peacekeeping Force (MINUSMA) and the G5-SAHEL forces for the lack of security throughout the country over the years and expelled all foreign forces from the country (end of 2023). In the struggle, Colonel Asimi Goita, who had drawn both the street and his two putschist neighbours to his side, strengthened his hand by filling the vacuum left by the Western troops with the Russian Wagner forces, which did not give him any headaches. Then, with the announcement that he and his two neighbours and allies had left ECOWAS, he consolidated his dominance and got rid of all the chains that constituted an obstacle.

Freed from the shackles, the junta had to ensure security in Mali.

We see and observe that Mali has not collapsed with the departure of Western military forces. The capture of Kidal with the help of the Russian Wagner (15 November 2023) is a success for Russia at the expense of the West. It should be noted that Russia’s assistance to Mali will be limited to the military sphere and that Russian support in the economic and social sphere will not be possible. Mali has been ruled by the military for more than three years, and the success of the unelected but popular junta in the fight against local jihadist groups (al-Qaeda’s GNIM and Daesh’s ISGS) in 2024 will determine the fate of Colonel Asimi Goita. At present, in West Africa, we are sadly watching the rise of junta regimes and Wagner on the one hand, and the decline of the western world, democratic values, the regional organisation ECOWAS and the symbol of democracy, Senegal, on the other.

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