Kosovo-Serbia tensions have had enough

Due to climate change, Springs are getting shorter  while summers and winters are extending. It seems that Turkish-Greek relations are also affected from global warming. The warm climate which came after a painful year will not last long. Following the end of summer, as a result of  NAVTEXES iassued by both parties, the harsh rhetoric used in public statements, the exchange of letters between Permanent Representatives in New York and arms race of Greece  created an atmosphere of tension. It is feared that these developments will be followed by the presence of vessels once again in eastern mediterrenean.

What happened in the last one month?

A symposium under the title of “Sea of islands and neighbourhood relations with Greece”  was held on 9th of September in İzmir. The symposium  was inaugrated by a video message from President Erdoğan.The defense minister Akar as well as  chief of staff and commanders of 3 forces were all among the participants. The discussions were not limited to Aegean questions but varied from illegal migration to support given to terrorism by Greece. Although there was no reaction from Greek side, the title, timing and the high level participation must have been noted

On 11th september, Greece announced that she has ordered 6 more Rafale aircraft from France bringing the total to 24. During the visit of Greek PM Mitsotakis to France, A strategic partnership agreement in the field of defence and security and a memorandum of understanding for purchasing 3 frigates were signed on 28 September. The total of those two projects amount to 6 billion euros.

On 30th September in his letter sent to UN Secretary General, Feridun Sinirlioğlu once again registered the objection of Turkey to militarization of Aegean islands in violation of international treaties. In the letter it was also underlined for the first time that those militarization efforts will jeopardise the jurisdiction of greece over the islands.

On 1st of october, Turkey and Greek Cypriot Administration issued NAVTEXES in the eastern mediterenean. On 3rd of october a Greek Cypriot research vessel was sent away by Turkish navy from her continental shelf. Finaly Ömer Çelik, spokesperson of AKP stated that blue land was an indispensable part of motherland and Turkey would be obliged to defend it at any cost.

Among all this fuss,the 63rd round of explotary talks washeld in Ankara. As usual no statement was issued after the meeting.

Strategic cooperation agreement between Greece and France

The timing of the strategic cooperation agreement is worthwhile. The agreement comprising of 5 chapters and 31 articles came after less than 2 weeks when Australia announced her decision to buy nuclear submarines from US instead of diesel powered ones from France. Germany is in process of forming her new coalition; UK is busy with solving the truck drivers issue and US is trying to repair her ties with France. There could have been no better timing. As far as the content is concerned, there are a lot of words without flesh like cooperation, consultation, exchange of information.The fact that the agreement has been signed by both presidents and foreign ministers is not a common practice in diplomacy. Although in article 3 the primary responsibility for the security in Europe remained with NATO, there are a lot of references to European Security Identity which bring to one’s mind that French experts were more active during the drafting. The most important is article 2 where it is stated that in case of an mutually agreed agression to the territory of oneside, the parties will assist each other with all available means including use of armed forces. This article may be an headache for Greece in NATO.

Debate at the parliament

The agreement was critisezed by the opposition during its ratification at the parliament on the grounds that the wording of the article 2 was vague regarding its coverage and it did not meet the security requirements of Greece in the Aegean. A member of ruling party was expelled when he claimed that communism was a bigger threat to Greece than Turkey. How lucky the Turks are to be in the first place among the enemies. The agreement was ratified by 191 votes in the Parliament among 300 MPs. It is doubtfull that French soldiers will risk their lives for the sake of Palikarya.

Greece is shooting at her own feet

No need to worry for Turkey. If one looks at the military balance published by ISSI, It is very clear that Greece lacks far behind Turkey in terms of military strength.They were provoked by the Brits when they ventured Asia minor disaster. Now they are falling into trap enginered by France. They have not come out of the economic crisises yet. With regard the ratio of foreign debt to GDP, they are still ranking in the first place by %240 among the OECD countries. What to say, let God give them wisdom.

Four global players will define how our near future will look: the United States (US), the European Union (EU), China and Russia. The relationship between these “four horsemen of the Apocalypse” will – to a large degree – determine the new World Order.

All indications today are that we are moving towards an even more multipolar world. Attempts by Russian President Putin to align with China against NATO could therefore be a turning point (https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-60257909). The state of Turkey’s relationship with these four actors will to a large degree determine its position within the new world order.

The four horsemen suffer substantial internal problems. The United States has never been more polarized for decades while the EU is more divided than ever. And similarly, Russia is persuing certain adventurist policies in its own background while China is still licking its wounds trying to recover from the economic externalities it suffered due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to upset political balances as well

While the pandemic has affected the entire world, it no longer is the singular threat mankind is facing. More structural threats such as climate change, the refugee crisis, energy security, income injustices and poverty continue to challenge our future. And while we look to politicians to find solutions to these problems, another global virus, i.e. a very infectious form of populism, is undermining our hopes that they will succeed. While it is painfully clear that we need more international cooperation and solidarity to overcome these challenges, the four horsemen of the Apocalypse, instead of learning from the past, are pushing the world towards a new cold war.

With us or against us?

The different sides of this next generation war is slowly shaping up. While we have the usual suspects on the West, China and Russia are trying to organize the Eastern block. And the competition in trying to secure a better position is so harsh that it undermines every attempt to cooperate in order to build a more rule-based and just order. At this rate, it looks near impossible to expect any form of order that would ensure global peace and stability.

With this background in mind, the Ukraine crisis that is currently unfolding, is leaving us little room to be optimistic about the future.

While Russia is clearly the strongest country in terms of hard power on the European continent, it is excluded from taking part in Europe’s security infrastructure which, in turn, causes national security concerns in Russia. This is de facto the catalyser for the current crisis with Ukraine. Contrary to popular opinion today, Russians have no objections against Ukranian sovereignty but it is using Ukraine as a vehicle to communicate its security concerns to the world while ensuring that NATO will not enlarge further towards Russian terrority. As such we might conclude some of Russia’s concerns are reasonable but its methodology is unjust and frightening.

The West is trying to contain Russian agression but is hindered by past mistakes and the clouds

hanging over the alliance. The US is trying to coordinate a common response but has lost too much credibility due to the Afghanistan fiasco. Left with little options, the US is threatening sanctions which have already been proven ineffective.

Germany and France are uncomfortable.

Despite years of Western sanctions, Russia still enjoys a $600 Billion sovereign wealth fund. And critical US ally, Germany, with an annual gas consumption of 90 billion cubic meters, is understandably reluctant to pull the plug on Nord Stream which is expected to supply 55 Billion cubic meters of gas per annum. Germany’s freshman chancellor Olaf Scholz suggesting otherwise right after his meeting on February 7 with President Biden, shouldn’t fool anyone (https://www.dw.com/tr/washingtonda-scholz-biden-bulu%C5%9Fmas%C4%B1/a-60691135).

It is also unlikely the Russians will be deterred by French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Moscow a day later. On the contrary, Putin made a conscience effort to humiliate monsieur Macron with the world watching (https://www.haberler.com/dunyanin-gundemine-oturan-gorusme-putin-dikkat-14720451-haberi/)

Can the Ukranian crisis be resolved without Ukraine?

Except the Normandy Format none of the international negotiations aspiring to resolve the Ukraine crisis offered a seat to Ukraine itself. Consequently, despite criticism that mr. Macron faces for his frequent displays of narcissism, his visit to Moscow as the periodic chairman of the EU, should be seen as a legitimate attempt to mediate. However, mr. Putin’s attitude during the visit, once again made it undeniably clear that he considers mr. Biden as his legitimate counterpart and nobody else. It is likely that this dance between the four horsemen of the Apocalypse will continue as nobody can afford to allow the cold war to turn hot.

Continuing a state of crisis with the West is essentially a win-win for Russia. Right after killing any hopes of real autonomy in Belarus, mr. Putin’s first win derived from the Ukraine crisis without firing a single bullet is that talks of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia are now indefinitely postponed regardless of whether they manage to fulfil the membership criteria. Second, NATO will not be able to station strategic weapon systems in former Soviet countries that are aligned with the West. In fact, as part of a possible deal for Russia to back down, existing military assets might be pulled from these countries. Third, Russia has managed to further widen the wedge between NATO allies which has always been a core objective of mr. Putin while exposing Germany as its weakest link. The entire world now knows that mr. Scholz will not be able to fill former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s shoes and that mr. Macron’s ambitions exceed his abilities. Perhaps the biggest win that mr. Putin has leveraged out of the Ukraine crisis is an alliance with Chinese President mr. Xi showing the entire world that Russia has China’s backing. Obviously Chinese support for Russian ambitions in Ukraine is likely to translate into Russian support for Chinese ambitions regarding Taiwan.

Considering the stakes involved, and despite popular opinion, this author believes that the Ukrainian crisis is unlikely to turn hot.

As so often before in history, Turkey finds itself in the middle of the volatility caused by the Ukranian crisis. Not only is Turkey interdependent on Russia from a regional military perspective as well as mutual trade, tourism and direct gas supply, but Turkey is also a decades-old US ally, EU candidate, and a NATO member that enjoys excellent relations with Ukraine.

Perhaps most critically Turkey controls the straits that offer the only access to warm waters for Russian ships under the conditions of the Montreux Treaty. Even under normal circumstances it is difficult to balance all these differing interests but with an imminent war between these stakeholders, it truly is a herculean task.