FROM AUTHORS

ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ARARAT MIIRZOYAN’S VISIT TO TURKEY: NORMALIZATION POSITIVE MESSAGES FOR THE PROCESS

27 February 2023
PAYLAŞ

Messages of support and offers of help poured in from all over the world after the Kahramanmaras earthquake that shook Turkey, devastated ten provinces and killed more than forty-three thousand people. Foreign Ministers of many countries paid support visits to Turkey. Among the most notable visits was undoubtedly that of Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

Following the 7.7 magnitude earthquake centered in Kahramanmaras, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturian expressed their support for Turkey and earthquake-hit Syria on social media.

Pashinyan said on his Twitter account, “I am deeply saddened by the news of the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria, which resulted in many casualties. Armenia is ready to provide assistance.

Following this statement, Armenia sent 28 search and rescue teams and more than 100 tons of humanitarian aid on February 11. The trucks passed through the Andijan border crossing, which has been closed for 30 years, and reached Adıyaman, the earthquake zone.

In 1993, after the Armenian army invaded Azerbaijan’s Kalbajar rayon, the Armenian-Turkish border crossings were closed and both countries welcomed the opening of the border crossings for humanitarian aid. It is hoped that this step will create an impetus for the normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations, which have been progressing slowly due to the impact of the process towards the hoped-for peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Despite the lack of diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey, both countries have been sensitive to humanitarian aid in the past.

For example, Turkey sent humanitarian aid to Armenia in 1988 after the earthquake disaster in the Spitak Region of Armenia, which killed 20,000 people. The aid collected by the Turkish Red Crescent was delivered to the earthquake zone through the Alican border crossing.

In 1999, following the Marmara earthquake, Armenian President Robert Kocharian sent a telegram to then President Süleyman Demirel expressing his condolences and stating that Armenia would send a search and rescue team if requested.

After the 2011 Van earthquake, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan sent a message of condolences to President Abdullah Gül and stated that Armenian search and rescue teams were ready to provide support.

Armenia’s foreign minister Ararat Mirzoyan paid a support visit to Turkey on February 15 in the aftermath of the earthquake. Mirzoyan was accompanied by Ruben Rubinyan, Armenia’s special envoy to the Armenia-Turkey normalization process. Mirzoyan and Rubinyan were welcomed at Esenboğa Airport by Turkey’s special envoy Serdar Kılıç. This was Mirzoyan’s second visit to Turkey. In March 2022, Ararat Mirzoyan participated in the Antalya Diplomatic Forum and met with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, and both Ministers shared their positive feelings about the normalization process. On February 15, after a brief meeting of the Foreign Ministers, a joint press conference was held. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu expressed his gratitude for Armenia’s support in the following words:

“Armenia sent a search and rescue team of 28 people to our country. Since February 8, they have rescued a little girl and a young man in Adıyaman. They worked hard and we saw how happy they were while doing this.”

Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu stated that they touched upon the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia and also discussed the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Mentioning the importance of Armenia’s assistance, Çavuşoğlu said, “Armenia extended its hand of solidarity in our difficult times.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said at the press conference: “I would like to reaffirm our desire to establish peace by being in Turkey in these difficult times.

After the press conference, Ararat Mirzoyan and Ruben Rubinyan traveled to the earthquake-hit Adiyaman province. Mirzoyan and Rubinyan were welcomed at the airport by Serdar Kılıç, Special Representative of Armenia to Turkey, and Fatma Ceren Yazgan, who served as Ambassador to Tbilisi between 2017 and 2022.

Ruben Rubinyan, Deputy Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly and Armenia’s special envoy to Turkey, told Anadolu Agency that they visited Turkey to show their solidarity with Turkey in the face of a major disaster. Armenian Foreign Minister Mirzoyan and Rubinyan opened the second batch of aid sent by Armenia together. Referring to the normalization process, Ruben Rubinyan said that Armenia is determined to normalize relations between the two neighboring countries:

“Armenia’s assistance to Turkey in the face of the disaster reflects the feelings of the Armenian society. Normalization will, first of all, ensure stability and peace in the region; secondly, it will create opportunities for economic and other cooperation.”

Turkey’s special envoy Serdar Kilic emphasized the importance of Armenia’s assistance and said that the Turkish people will not forget it. “Support from the countries of the region is an important factor in alleviating pain and grief. Like other countries in the region, the people of Armenia stand by the Turkish people in this painful moment.

Turkey’s special envoy Serdar Kılıç emphasized the importance of Armenia’s assistance and stated that the Turkish people will not forget it. “The support from the countries in the region is an important factor in alleviating the pain and grief. Like other countries in the region, the people of Armenia made an effort to be with the Turkish people in this painful moment, sending search and rescue teams as well as cargo trucks carrying humanitarian aid. We will of course not forget this support from Armenia. This is a very important event. Pain brings people together,” he said.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who took part in a panel discussion on the South Caucasus with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili at the 59th Munich Security Conference held between February 17-19, also touched upon the issue of humanitarian aid sent to Turkey and stated that they received a positive response from the Turkish government in this process: “Our decision to send humanitarian aid and search and rescue teams to Turkey was only for relief purposes, but we have seen the positive reaction of the Turkish government in this process. If the step has a positive outcome, so much the better.

Despite this positive development between Turkey and Armenia, experts say the process will proceed in parallel with the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace treaty process. Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan, director of the Yerevan-based Center for Political and Strategic Studies, says Armenia’s assistance will not change the Turkish government’s strategic calculus; “I believe that Turkey will continue to link Armenia-Azerbaijan relations to the Armenia-Turkey process.

Poghosyan believes that a comprehensive normalization will be possible only after the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty. Benyamin Poghosyan noted that there are different opinions about normalization among the Armenian public, with one part of the Armenian public hoping that the economy will revive with the opening of the closed border crossings, while another part thinks that the local producers will suffer from the cheap Turkish products.

The reopening of the border crossing for humanitarian aid 30 years after it was closed following the occupation of Azerbaijan’s Kalbajar rayon in 1993 has also been discussed by political circles in Azerbaijan. Rusif Huseynov, co-founder of the Topchubashov Center, a Baku-based think tank, said that politicians in Azerbaijan are sensitive when commenting on this issue because humanitarian aid is at stake. Huseynov said. Ararat Mirzoyan’s visit created a positive atmosphere. However, the Azerbaijani side understands that it is not possible to resolve many issues at once with one-time humanitarian aid.”

According to Huseynova, Turkey will not take any step that would negatively affect its relations with Azerbaijan:

”Relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey have deepened. Military cooperation, joint projects in the field of transportation and energy, investments of Turkish companies in the liberated regions are all well known. The road to normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia passes through Baku.”

It is true that the relations between Turkey and Armenia are progressing in parallel with the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace treaty process. The pros and cons of this can be discussed, but a step to be taken between Turkey and Armenia will contribute more to Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. Armenia’s humanitarian assistance was recognized by the people of Turkey as a meaningful and important message. Perhaps peace should be given a chance when tragedies bring people together and the necessary steps should be taken without forgetting these feelings.

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Venezuela Elections : The test of Nicolas Maduro and the Chavez ideology with the electorate: 28 July 2024

12 July 2024

I have been following Venezuela since my transfer to Cuba (2012). At that time, Venezuela was a very prestigious country in Latin America, with very bright economic indicators, exporting its oil without any problems, challenging the US, and providing serious support to Caribbean countries, especially Cuba, through the “Petro Caribe” programme. In 2013, with the death of Hugo Chavez, this bright page was closed. The decline in oil and raw material prices, the internal political tensions that started with Nicolas Maduro’s narrow victory in the controversial 2013 elections, the increasing pressure on opposition leaders, strained relations with the US, unfinished social investments, increasing corruption, world record inflation, all brought the end of Venezuela’s success story. During the 12-year term of Nicolas Maduro, the collapse of Hugo Chavez’s ideology was put on stage. The Venezuelan people, who were introduced to prosperity in the 1999-2013 period, have experienced the deepest economic crisis in their history in recent years, with 7.5 million people fleeing the country of 30 million people due to widespread misery.

Maduro opponents united against all obstacles for elections

The Maduro regime suffered serious legitimacy problems as a result of the 2018 elections, which were boycotted by the opposition due to bans, arrests and repression. The United States and around 50 other countries have now crossed Maduro out and recognised Juan Guaido, the head of parliament, as the country’s legitimate president. This extreme pressure on Venezuela under Trump’s leadership did not bring the expected political results. The Juan Guaido bubble deflated within a year or two, but the country was brought to its knees economically, unable to breathe. The mutually damaging stalemate was ended with the mediation of Mexico and Norway. In October 2023, an agreement was reached in Barbados (an island state in the Caribbean) between the Maduro administration and the opposition. US sanctions were eased in exchange for fair and free elections. This time the Venezuelan opposition united around a single candidate, reversing the boycott of the 2018 elections. Maria Corina Machado, an ardent oppositionist, was nominated as a joint candidate. The fact that the Supreme Court, under Maduro’s command, did not approve Machado’s candidacy, in violation of the Barbados Consensus, could not break the unity and resistance of the opposition, and this time they rallied behind retired diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez, whom Machado pointed out. Currently, Maria Machado and Edmundo Gonzalez are successfully campaigning side by side and hand in hand.

The opposition’s electoral victory will not bring absolute power

Although opinion polls point to Maduro losing the elections, it would be appropriate not to give too much credence to these predictions. On the other hand, there are some circles who are sceptical that Maduro, who has the army behind him, may not hand over power quietly. It is possible to come across some shenanigans regarding the election results. On the other hand, the opposition’s victory in the presidential elections does not mean that all the “Chavezian” public institutions and organisations that have held power for 25 years will fall under the control of the opposition in a few weeks; the victory in the presidential elections of 28 July will only be the first step towards a radical change. The purge of the judiciary and the armed forces of “Chavezian” cadres will certainly take time. Let us bear in mind that parliamentary elections will be organised next year, followed by provincial elections the following year. We can say that if the parliamentary majority and state governments are won, the Opposition will dominate the country and become powerful.

It is imperative that the Chavezists and the opposition continue their dialogue on common ground.

Relations between the government and the opposition in Venezuela have been tense beyond normal for decades. The Chávezists regard the opposition as traitors and US lackeys. The opposition, which adopts neoliberal economics and sympathises with the US, considers the leftist governments and their supporters as inferior, primitive and outdated, and considers them insulting by labelling them communists. Naturally, such extreme polarisation constitutes a serious obstacle to peace and tranquility in the country. It has become a necessity for both sides to accept each other and learn to live together in peace. In this context, the most rational option would be for the opposition to maintain dialogue with the existing Chávezist cadres and cooperate with them to overcome the problems in the event of a victory in the July 28 elections. The masses of distraught people expect from the new government, first and foremost, running water, an end to power cuts, hospitals to provide services, salaries to increase and poverty to disappear.

Hugo Chavez passes and Maduro fails

An unbiased evaluation of the Venezuelan experience of the political understanding developed by Hugo Chávez, known as “Chavismo”, shows that the first period yielded positive results, with lower and middle income people rising to the upper class.In this period, Chavez also achieved successful results in foreign relations, strengthening regional co-operation by providing various supports to Caribbean countries (especially Cuba) in difficult situations.In sum, Chávez gained credibility with the public by prioritising the needs of the poor masses in the allocation of oil revenues.Under Maduro, who took the helm after the leftist populist leader, “Chavismo” collapsed.The situation of the prioritised poor masses has worsened and people have fled their country. Maduro also failed the test of democracy, trying to intimidate the opposition with repression and driving the people away from the polls. Maduro, who also scored badly in terms of foreign relations, was virtually isolated in his region and waited for patronage from Iran, Russia and China.If asked what Maduro has achieved, I can say that he succeeded in keeping the army on his side.I could not see any other success.

If the oil sector is revived and exports increase, the economic crisis will end; what about the social crisis?

The key to getting out of the deep political and economic crisis Venezuela has fallen into is to return to the days when the country extracted 3 million barrels of oil a day and exported it without any problems.In recent years, production has fallen below one million barrels.Spending oil revenues for the welfare of the masses of people, free from corruption, would bring social peace to a country suffering from income inequality.Venezuela has collapsed mainly due to its own mistakes, and the US sanctions against the country have accelerated the collapse.If Maduro wins the elections on 28 July, it will be almost impossible to revive the crisis-ridden oil sector, increase exports, end corruption, promote social peace and restore democracy.Considering that the US is the leading natural buyer of Venezuelan oil in the region, if the united opposition wins the elections, it will be recognised that the country is highly likely to emerge from the crisis with the end of US sanctions.If Edmundo Gonzalez and his team prioritise the poor masses in the distribution of oil revenues, the problem of political polarisation will disappear and Venezuela will regain its position as the most prosperous country in the region.

 

Turning Over a New Leaf in Relations with Israel

4 March 2022

There is a saying attributed to Vladimir Ilich Lenin: “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. This could not be more applicable to recent developments in global politics. Turkey’s recent rapprochement to Israel is a good example that fits this description.

 

The Government of Turkey seems to have realized that some of its erratic policies will come back to haunt them. Recent foreign policy initiatives indicate that Turkey is on a charm offensive to soften the blowback it expects from its past mistakes. In this spirit, the government seems to have abandoned earlier rhetoric that resonated well with its domestic political base but had little international policy value. As a result we are witnessing intense efforts to repair the bilateral relationship with regional adversaries. The recent visit to Turkey by the leader of the United Arab Emirates is meant to symbolize the fresh start Turkey is ambitious to achieve with others as well.

 

These efforts are awarded with a brand new foreign policy slogan. After the “Zero Problem” doctrine which ended up resembling “Zero Solutions”, the government now likes to refer to its foreign policy objectives as the “Problem-free Circle” representing its desire to create a circle of allies with regional countries.

 

Having finally realized that a foreign policy based on angry statements and unilateral actions achieves very little, Turkey’s government has dramatically changed its approach to Israel as well. This is perhaps the most concrete manifestation of the Government’s change in attitude.

 

These efforts have found a receptive audience in Tel Aviv as well as Israel also realized that it is better off enjoying good relations with Turkey. One cannot help but ask whether it was really necessary to force relations with Israel, a very important regional country, to a boiling point to begin with? Sadly the political leaders on both sides acted impulsively and did not calculate the potential cost of their negligent policies. And instead of assuming responsibility for certain mistakes and trying to find common ground based on mutual interest, both sides tried to leverage this bickering politically. Turkey supported Hamas to spite Israel and Israel felt entitled to murder 11 Turkish civilians during the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident. Such mistakes inevitably escalated the tension between the two countries.

 

How did it all start?

 

The beginning of the events that strained relations goes back to “Operation Cast Lead”. Israel initiated this military operation in December 2008 to quell Palestinian paramilitary groups in Gaza, but the military methods it used were heavily criticized internationally and became known in the Muslim world as the “Gaza Massacre”. Unfortunately, this operation was started only days after a meeting between the then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and then Prime Minister Tayyip Erdoğan where Mr. Erdoğan advocated for a peaceful solution. Erdogan felt betrayed by Olmert who seemed to have left his table only to order a military operation that killed hundreds of Palestinians leaving Erdoğan in a difficult spot politically.

 

Shortly thereafter, in the first weeks of 2009, during a plenary session of the Davos Conference, Erdoğan ended up raising his voice to the late President of Israel, Shimon Peres, which became known as the “One-Minute” incident.

 

And finally, the Mavi Marmara Flotilla incident occurred in the spring of 2010 where 11 Turkish citizens were killed in international waters by Israeli special forces.

 

And beyond that point, it seemed impossible to get the relationship back on track again. Erdoğan perceived Olmert’s behavior as a personal slight to his person and hardened his approach to Israel, never forgiving Olmert for his failure to keep his promise to find a peaceful solution.

 

Turkey shifted gears and started putting its weight behind Palestinian authorities. In short, both sides took the relationship for granted, and created an environment that was detrimental for regional peace and stability.

 

While I sincerely hope Turkey’s efforts to rebuild the relationship will succeed, it is important to realize Israel has less to lose if these attempts fail. If we analyze recent attempts to build a circle of allies from the perspective of Turkish Israeli relations, it would be unrealistic to quickly expect a full normalization. We need to realize that we need this normalization more than that Israel does. Israel is doing much better economically and from a geostrategic angle has less need for Turkey than before. While Turkey used to be Israel’s only Muslim-majority ally in the region, the Abraham Accords have remedied this situation and Israel now enjoys other allies in the Sunni world rendering Turkey less valuable.

 

It is therefore important to manage expectations for the aftermath of the expected visit by Yitzak Herzog, the President of Israel. Following the visit, it will be necessary to execute a series of confidence-building measures to regain the trust of Israel’s political authorities as well as the Israeli public opinion.

 

While challenges remain, there are also good reasons to be optimistic. Perhaps most importantly, the simple fact that the economic relationship continued to prosper even during the years that the political relationship was frozen. The refusal of economic relations to be subservient to political relations should be seen as a major source of hope and Erdoğan’s statement that Turkey could carry Israeli gas to Europe could not be better timed even though it might prove difficult to finance such a pipeline. Similarly, the number of Israeli tourists visiting Turkey has substantially increased in recent years and the cultural angle of the relationship including sports events are also reasons to be optimistic.

 

Israel, Iran, Azerbaijan

 

Another reason that the bilateral relationship is proving more resilient than many analysts assumed until recently, it is the ability of Israeli decision-makers to think strategically. Israeli policy-makers are uniquely qualified in recognizing that Israel will also benefit, on the long-term, from better and stronger relations with Turkey. Both countries have a common interest in containing Iranian influence in the region especially with the latter taking an increasingly more aggressive approach in trying to wield power in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Iranian efforts to increase its influence in Gulf countries such as the UAE as well as attempts to undermine stability in the relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia, will further add to the importance of stronger Turkish Israeli relations.

 

Benefits of rapprochment in the West and the Hamas factor

 

I am also convinced that Israel is well aware of the fact that Turkey could assume a significant role in ensuring that the deep differences of opinion between Israel and Hamas do not lead to more violent conflicts between the two sides. In fact, everyone knows that Turkey was able to play such a role succesfully in the past. Therefore, if Turkey once again adopts a constructive attitude on this matter, it would have a very concrete and positive effect on rebuilding the relationship to its past glory. It is therefore no surprise that Turkey has made substantial efforts to distance itself from the Muslim Brotherhood as well as from armed factions of Hamas. Turkish policy makers should realize however that their Israeli counterparts will be monitoring closely whether such efforts enjoy real continuity.

 

It is also beyond any doubt that Western allies of both countries, especially the United States and the United Kingdom, will actively welcome more cooperation between Turkey and Israel. In fact, any measure of improvement in our relations with Israel, will inherently have a positive impact on our relations with these countries. This, in turn, will resonate positively on Turkey’s defense industry ambitions as well as other policy areas.

 

Israel also has a lot to gain

 

Israel should take care to rebuild relations with Turkey on a “win-win” basis to ensure its continuity and its leaders should look past transitional disagreements and remember longstanding amicable relations between the Turkish and the Jewish peoples. While few people in the West will recall, Turkey was the first majority-Muslim country to recognize Israel when it gained independence; a fact that will never be forgotten by the Israeli people.

 

In short, by adopting a pragmatic approach, Turkey managed to break the ice with the UAE. And it is now working to rebuild relations with Israel while considering options to reconcile with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Today’s political authorities are now realizing that rebuilding trust is much more difficult than destroying it.

 

Time for allies to be allies

 

While I am not entirely convinced that recent attempts to regain the trust that was lost in the last 15 years, are the result of deep introspection and a serious analysis of past mistakes, I remain hopeful that a convergence of interest between the two countries as well as the realization that enough challenges exist for both parties without constant bickering with old allies, will be enough to give these efforts continuity. It is past time to let bygones be bygones and look ahead while focusing on what unites us rather than fighting about our disagreements.

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