Introduction: The Rediscovery of Central Asia
The statement made by the President of the European Commission at the EU–Central Asia Samarkand Summit in 2025—“Central Asia was once the middle of nowhere; today it is the center of everything”—is not merely diplomatic rhetoric but a concise reflection of a structural transformation in global power balances. Long regarded as Russia’s “backyard,” Central Asia has today become one of the pivotal regions of the global system in terms of energy security, critical raw materials, transport and trade corridors, and geopolitical competition.
This transformation should be understood not as an abrupt rupture, but within a framework of historical continuity. Central Asia has been a theater of great-power rivalry since the nineteenth century; however, in the twenty-first century this competition has evolved into a more complex, multi-actor contest employing diverse and layered instruments of influence.
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I. The Historical Background of the Great Game
The expansionist policy of Tsarist Russia toward Central Asia acquired a systematic character from the mid-eighteenth century onward. The process of establishing military and administrative control over the Kazakh steppes began in the 1730s and accelerated between 1840 and 1860. Russia consolidated its dominance in Western Turkestan by capturing Tashkent in 1865, bringing the Emirate of Bukhara under control in 1868, subjugating the Khanate of Khiva in 1873, and abolishing the Khanate of Kokand in 1876.
This expansion triggered not only a regional but a global power struggle. Russia’s southward drive toward warm waters and India directly conflicted with the interests of the British Empire in the Indian subcontinent, while China (under the Qing dynasty) sought to preserve its control over Eastern Turkestan. This multi-actor rivalry came to be known in the literature as the “Great Game.”
Following the First World War and the Bolshevik Revolution, Russia maintained its presence in Central Asia under the framework of the Soviet Union, while China, after 1949, retained control over Eastern Turkestan (Xinjiang) as the People’s Republic of China. Outer Mongolia (present-day Mongolia) functioned as a buffer zone between the two powers.
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II. The Cold War and Its Aftermath: Central Asia’s Long Silence
Throughout the Cold War, despite periodic crises in Sino-Soviet relations, the People’s Republic of China did not assert an explicit claim to political influence in Central Asia. The primary reasons for this restraint were Beijing’s desire to avoid direct confrontation with the USSR and its concern over maintaining fragile ethnic and demographic balances in Xinjiang. China consistently viewed the potential influence of newly independent Turkic states on the Uyghur population as a security risk.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 ushered in a new geopolitical era for Central Asia. The independence of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan opened a new sphere of engagement for the United States and the broader Western world. During this period, Western access to the region was largely mediated through Turkey. Turkey’s NATO membership, secular state structure, and ethno-linguistic affinity with Central Asian societies were decisive factors, alongside Western concerns about limiting Iran’s influence in the region.
Contrary to initial expectations, however, Western influence in Central Asia remained limited. Authoritarian political systems, deep economic and security dependence on Russia, the orientation of transport and energy infrastructure toward the north, and the region’s geographic distance from Western centers all constrained Western engagement. Western universities, media outlets, and civil society networks failed to achieve the depth of penetration seen in Eastern Europe. As a result, until 2022, Central Asia largely remained within Russia’s sphere of influence.
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III. U.S. and Chinese Initiatives: Failures and Enduring Strategies
In the mid-2000s, the United States advanced the “Greater Central Asia” concept, aiming to connect Central Asia with South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Various iterations of this approach, discussed in 2005 and 2010, failed due to instability in Afghanistan, insufficient financial backing, and the absence of sustained political commitment in Washington.
By contrast, China unveiled its comprehensive strategy—now known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—in 2013 in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. Central Asia occupied a central position in the BRI’s overland corridors. China presented the initiative primarily as an economic development project and sought to reassure Russia that it did not entail political domination. Russia, lacking the economic capacity to counterbalance China, refrained from open opposition and instead attempted to slow the process through cultural influence and media narratives.
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IV. The Post-2022 Rupture: The New Great Game
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 constituted a historical turning point for Central Asia. Initially, the region was marked by profound anxiety; if Russia was willing to intervene militarily in a country on Europe’s periphery, it was assumed that Central Asia—farther from Western political engagement—could be next. However, the protracted nature of the war and its transformation into a war of attrition severely undermined the myth of Russian military invincibility prevailing in the region.
This shift pushed Central Asian states toward strategic diversification. The European Union, seeking to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, turned its attention to the region’s hydrocarbon resources and critical minerals. The United States revitalized the C5+1framework, elevating engagement with Central Asia to the level of heads of state.
For China, this period marked the reduction of geopolitical obstacles to the BRI. Beijing found a more permissive environment in which to relocate production to inland regions, secure overland trade routes, and accelerate demographic and economic transformation in Xinjiang.
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V. Regional and Middle-Power Actors
Since 1992, Turkey has pursued a strategy of institutional presence in Central Asia. The Cooperation Council of Turkic-Speaking States, established in 2009, evolved into the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) in 2021, expanding its scope and membership. The cultural affinity as well as Middle Corridor, along with transport and energy connectivity projects, constitutes Turkey’s principal strategic instruments in the region.
During the same period, Iran and the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE), as well as Japan and South Korea, significantly increased their diplomatic and economic engagement with Central Asia. Japan and South Korea have been particularly active in infrastructure development, technology transfer, and education.
The European Union, for its part, has allocated €13 billion under the Global Gateway strategy to connectivity projects linking the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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VI. The Central Asia Friendship Initiative: A Proposal
This overall picture indicates that a new Great Game is unfolding in Central Asia. Unlike its historical predecessor, however, this competition involves not only great powers but also middle powers with substantial economic and diplomatic capabilities. In this context, the launch of a “Central Asia Friendship Initiative” by Turkey, Japan and South Korea—potentially joined at later stages by the Gulf states—emerges as a strategically viable option.
Such an initiative could advance through:
•cultural cooperation,
•language and higher education programs,
•joint infrastructure projects and investment funds,
•business networks,
•technology and green transition initiatives.
Even if opportunities arise in the future to integrate with U.S. or EU-led initiatives, this framework would enhance the collective bargaining power of participating states and enable them to defend their interests more effectively.
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Conclusion
Central Asia has once again moved to the center of global politics in the twenty-first century. In this evolving environment, not only great powers but also middle powers acting on the basis of shared interests and complementary strengths can pursue constructive, sustainable, and balanced engagement. The Central Asia Friendship Initiative holds the potential to offer an alternative model of cooperation within the framework of the new Great Game.