Ecuador President Declares War Against Drug Gangs

South Africa (SA), one of the continent’s leading countries with a population of 70 million, held parliamentary elections last week. In 1994, the African National Congress (ANC), the liberation organization that overthrew the racist white regime under the leadership of Nelson Mandela, turned into a political party and ruled the country for 30 years, winning all elections in successive elections. The much-anticipated earthquake finally struck, and this time the ANC was able to garner only 40 percent of the vote (a loss of 17 percent), but retained its position as the largest party. Faced with the reality of a coalition government for the first time, will GA domestic politics be able to pass the test of democracy? Or will it run towards crisis and instability as a result of maximalist demands, ideological dogmas and vicious political negotiations?

Africa’s country with a backbone

It is generally accepted that South Africa is the state on the continent that stands the tallest, the most backbone against the former colonial powers and the big capitalist countries that impose their own order on the world. Let’s not go too deep; the GA, hand in hand with Algeria, maintains the strongest opposition to Israel on the continent. It does not even make Israel an observer in the African Union. At the end of last year, it filed a lawsuit against Israel in the International Court of Justice for genocide, proving that it has not deviated from its honorable line of not bowing to the West.

Success on the outside and a ball of problems on the inside

Leaving aside the principled foreign policy orientation, the domestic situation is bleak. The vortex of corruption is so deep and deep-rooted that it is no exaggeration to say that nothing has changed under President Cyril Ramaphosa, who came to power promising to eradicate this grave tradition. The second biggest problem is unemployment: one third of working age people are unemployed, and the unemployment rate among young people is even worse. The other major problem is life safety, public disorder is at its peak; law enforcement agencies are unable to prevent murders, robberies and rapes. Last year 25,000 people were killed, one of the highest rates in the world. Interestingly, it is blacks, not whites, who suffer from violence. These three problems are interconnected and structural, and can only be solved with long-term plans, programs and measures.

While we need to get rid of obsolete thermal power plants…

The problems of GA citizens are not limited to these; the country has been suffering from power cuts (up to 10 hours a day) for years, the running water is dependent on coincidences, and let’s not forget the high cost of living. The postponement of green energy investments for fear of increasing unemployment did not resonate with the electorate, while electricity generation based on decrepit coal-fired power plants in disrepair should be abandoned and renewable energy should be introduced. Disappointed by the widespread negativity I have summarized above, black voters punished the ANC at the ballot box. The slap of the loyal citizen who said that the ANC is my second “god” exploded in the face of the Cyril Ramaphosa administration this time.

Will a Government of National Unity be formed?

What do we see when we look at the vote rates of other parties? The main opposition party DA (Democratic Alliance), known as the party of whites, increased its vote rate from 22 to 23 percent. The problem with this center-right party, which continues to govern the Western Cape province where Cape Town is located and is well respected in business circles, is that it cannot appeal to the black majority. This time it is rumored that it could form a coalition government with the ANC. If such a “Government of National Unity” can be formed, with mutual concessions, the country would benefit and move up in the league of democracy.

The curse of Jacob Zuma

Two parties appealing to black voters garnered the rest of the votes. In KwaZulu-Natal province, the constituency of 82-year-old former president Jacob Zuma, the party he recently founded, MK (Spear of the Nation), achieved the most striking success (15 percent). Although this result for Jacob Zuma, who ruled the country between 2009 and 2018 and had to appear before the court for various corruption cases he was involved in, thus lowering the reputation of the whole country and ultimately being banned from participating in the elections by court order, is a success for him and his party, it should not be considered as such for GA. This temporary success, achieved thanks to his fellow countrymen/compatriots and through primitive tribal solidarity, cannot be explained by anything other than a backward political understanding.

MK : Spear of the Nation: Is racism black?

Since Jacob Zuma hates the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, who removed him from power in 2019, authorized investigations, brought him before a judge, convicted him and banned him, it seems unlikely that his party, MK, will go into coalition with the ANC. I believe that it is in the best interest of the country that the disgraced old politician, who has never accepted the accusations, whose name has become “Teflon”, who is the first thing that comes to mind when corruption is mentioned, and his newly formed party disappear from the political scene in the short term by being sidelined.

“Kill the Boer”: Julius Malema’s favorite song

The other party, which garnered around 10 percent of the vote, is the radical left-wing party called “Economic Freedom Fighters” (EFF), founded by Julius Malema, known as the “provocateur” or “red phenomenon”. The founder of the party, Julius Malema, made a name for himself when he was the head of the ANC’s youth wing, became the party’s rebel child, was eventually expelled from the ANC (2012) and founded his own party. He is very popular with young people and students. He is the number one enemy of the main center-right-leaning opposition, the Democratic Alliance, because he advocates the nationalization of mines and the return of white-owned land to the landless without compensation. Would a coalition government between the ANC and the EFF be possible? It is not a far-fetched scenario that Julius Malema, whom Elon Musk said would “commit genocide against whites if elected”, would show “revolutionary flexibility”, put his party’s extreme demands on the fridge and reach an agreement with the ANC on minimum commons.

The fate of the ANC awaits the MPLA (Angola)

The combined vote share of the ANC, MK and the EFF in May 2024 is equal to the ANC’s vote share in the 2010s. The fact that those who broke away from the ANC did not turn to the white party (DA) but to alternative black parties proves that the main opposition (DA) needs a change of strategy to increase its appeal. I recall that in my annual analyses I have emphasized that the ANC’s defeat is a disaster that has been “coming” for the last two years. Let us take this opportunity to remind that a similar fate awaits the MPLA, Angola’s historic founding party.

Will the Government of National Unity stop the decline of the ANC?

The 400-seat GA parliament, which is expected to convene two weeks after the announcement of the final election results, should/is expected to elect a new president in June. The ANC, having lost its majority, has a tough job, and Cyril Ramaphosa, the man responsible for the defeat, has an even tougher job, perhaps he will resign. Nelson Mandela’s legendary party is still on the ropes. Cleansing the party of corruption is an absolute necessity and a matter of urgency. If it forms an alliance with the DA, which is popular with business circles, it seems realistic and possible to recover the economy, reduce unemployment and overcome the problems in basic services. If the result is achieved, why should this alliance offend black voters? The 20-year decline of the historic party may end with the formation of a “Government of National Unity”.

Turkish Party HÖH at a Crossroads in Neighboring Bulgaria

I don’t know if you are interested in this, but in Bulgaria, our neighbor to the north, elections are held all the time, but no government is formed, and even if it is formed, it is short-lived. The last elections were held on June 9th, the 6th time in the last 3 years that voters went to the polls. As expected, the results of the elections this time also did not allow for a majority or a coalition government. The Turkish party “Rights and Freedoms” (HÖH) was also criticized when it came forward to form a coalition government. When negotiations to form a government failed to produce a result, President Radev, fulfilling his constitutional duty, announced new early elections: On October 20, 2024, Bulgarian voters will go to the polls for the seventh time in three years.

Two rival pro-EU parties went into coalition, but failed to last

In the spring of 2023, there was much speculation as to whether GERB (Initiative for Bulgaria’s European Future), led by former prime minister Boyko Borissov, and Kiril Petkov’s Continuing Change party, which came second, would be able to form a coalition government, despite the tensions between them. After all, these two pro-EU parties, which garnered the most votes, were not rivals but enemies. After ruling the country for a total of ten years, Borissov was ousted by reformers in the spring of 2021 after mass protests against his corruption. Kiril Petkov, known as a reformer and rising politician, was worried that if he formed a coalition with the corrupt GERB, he would face a backlash from the electorate. Finally a formula was found: Boyko Borissov and Kiril Petkov stepped aside. It was agreed that two members of their parties would alternate as prime minister for 9 months. First, Nikolay Denkov became prime minister on behalf of “Continuing the Change”, and when his term expired on March 5, 2024, he resigned and was replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Maria Gabriel (GERB). However, due to disagreements over the composition of the new cabinet, the government of Maria Gabriel could not be formed. As the country remained without a government, the 6th early elections were organized.

The second party, HÖH, sought a coalition with GERB

In the elections of June 9, 2024, GERB again came out as the first party with 25 percent of the votes, as voters, tired of the successive elections, did not show interest (turnout dropped to 33 percent). The second place was taken by the “Party of Turks” Rights and Freedoms (HÖH), which increased its votes by 2-3 points. Kiril Petkov’s Continuing Change party was punished by the voters and dropped to 3rd place (15 percent). On the other hand, the Russophile Renaissance party continued its steady rise and won 14 percent of the vote. The Putinist Socialist Party held on with 7 percent. Another far-right and Russophobic party, Velichie (Greatness), found a place in parliament with 5 percent of the vote. While it was hoped that GERB (68) and HÖH (48), which were close to reaching the required 121 deputies to form a government, would form a coalition government, this partnership was not possible due to the leadership crisis within HÖH. On the other hand, many political leaders turned their arrows against the co-chair of the FPÖH, Delyan Peevski, accusing him of being a “corrupt oligarch”, and the voices of “Bulgaria cannot be left in the hands of Peevski” were raised on the political scene. In the end, all 3 leaders who had received the mandate to form the government returned the mandate, and President Radev announced that the polls would be held again on October 20, 2024. At this point, it would be appropriate to open a parenthesis for HÖH and discuss the situation of the Party of Turks.

Is HÖH on the right track or is it doing wrong?

By the nature of things, every political party is expected to operate with the aim of coming to power. It is clear that HÖH, which has a voting potential of around 13-14 percent and traditionally has 35-40 deputies, cannot come to power on its own. In this case, entering coalitions and participating in governments is a natural attitude and a reasonable choice. In the early 2000s, it is a fact of politics that HÖH participated in coalition governments and as a result of these choices, it lost points in the eyes of pro-EU reformist parties. On the occasion of the October 2022 elections, I could not forget a statement by the former prime minister Kiril Petkov. I remember that he announced that they would not form a coalition with GERB on the grounds that they were involved in corruption and accused the HÖH of being in the same league with GERB. It is our greatest desire that the HÖH, which was once divided and weakened as a result of Ankara’s interference, be remembered for the pioneering role it played in Bulgaria’s liberation from Todor Zhivkov’s rule and for its ordeal in the protection of rights and freedoms. In this respect, it would be useful and appropriate for HÖH to stay away from all initiatives that would make it possible for it to be remembered for corruption.

Is the choice of Delyan Peevski the right one?

It is known that 10 years ago, Delyan Peevski was invited to the party by the founding leader Ahmet Dogan, as part of the decision of the HÖH to appeal to ethnic Bulgarians as well, while remaining basically a party of the Turkish minority. I assume that Peevski was not a highly criticized oligarch at the time, but in recent times, especially since 2020, you will not find a single positive news item about Peevski in US and EU circles. He is described as an oligarch who has been subjected to sanctions under the “Magnitsky Act-USA”, who gains influence and power through the media outlets he owns, and who advances his goals through bribery and threats. We see that Delyan Peevski, the target of criticism, was included in the lists of HÖH MPs in 2021, after he was “exonerated” by selling his notorious media and similar organizations. It is noteworthy that he became the deputy chairman of the HÖH group in the parliament and then, at the end of 2023, he became the co-chairman of the party together with Cevdet Shakarov. To summarize, it is clear that with Delyan Peevski’s contribution, the HÖH became the second party and increased its votes by 2-3 points, but it also lost a lot of credibility and became synonymous with other parties involved in corruption. After the June 9 elections, in July, we watched the party split in two, with Peevski forcing the party into a coalition with GERB and the founding/honorary president Ahmet Doğan opposing this partnership. As far as I can follow from the press, 22 deputies are in favor of Peevski and 28 deputies are in favor of Ahmet Doğan. In the October 20 elections, I don’t know which group will use the name HÖH, but it is very likely that the fight will go to the police station and end up in court. I understand that the majority of our compatriots will again support the Ahmet Dogan team.

The neighbor is on the right path, but it is a long road and he has to go day and night

It is a bitter reality that the Bulgarian people are sick and tired of elections and politicians. This is an EU country where two out of every three voters do not vote. On the other hand, nostalgia for the communist era is growing and pro-Russian parties are gaining strength. Relations with the EU are also problematic: The timetables for (partial) accession to the Schengen area and the euro are being postponed, there are serious delays in the allocation and use of EU funds. As the reforms imposed by the EU are delayed, so is the EU money. It is also true that EU money is behind a lot of corruption. Bulgarian businessmen seem to look at the political establishment as a tool for grabbing EU-funded projects. Despite all these negative aspects, our neighbor’s EU membership will eventually, but only in the long run, bring Bulgaria into modern civilization. If it were not a member of the EU, we would probably have a Belarusian-style neighbor to the north in the hands of the oligarchs.